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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-09-16T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-16T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21639/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to beacon data gap. May be associated with second filament eruption near S35W55, visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-09-16T01:09Z. Overtakes/merges with earlier CME from same location by 2022-09-16T07:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-18T21:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-09-16T07:03Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 636
Longitude (deg): 037W
Latitude (deg): 15S
Half-angular width (deg): 36 

Notes: Slow initial filament eruption around 15/2100UTC followed by and consumed by more rapid CME 16/0100UTC, forming united front on Lasco C2 and C3. No concurrent St A COR2 images - too faint by the time these are available, so from one perspective only. Appears to glance Earth late in UTC day 18 September, but handling of expected CH23 and/or CH24 HSS poor in current model, which is liekly to alter arrival time - lowering confidence.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 46.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-09-16T22:53Z

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